Method guide · Work with a structured grid
Scenario Matrix
Cross two independent, high-impact uncertainties to describe and challenge four distinct futures.
- People
- 6–30
- Base procedure time
- 120 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Generate ideas; Make a decision.
English guide
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How this method works
A method for crossing two high-impact uncertainties and describing four futures. Use it when discussion favours one prediction, plans assume only a preferred future, or future differences are expressed only through adjectives. Write the uncertainty endpoints as observable states and choose two axes that move independently. In each quadrant, describe changes in everyday life, decisions, and resources, then use counterexample forms to test differences from adjacent quadrants. The result is two axes, four futures, distinctive features, and early signals. Do not treat the quadrants as forecast probabilities or implementation plans, or choose input uncertainties without evidence.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
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- Identify uncertainties0–15 minutes from the start (15 minutes)
Action: Identify. Participation: Groups of 3–5.
Shared record
- Choose two axes15–40 minutes from the start (25 minutes)
Action: Choose. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
- Describe four futures40–70 minutes from the start (30 minutes)
Action: Describe. Participation: Groups of 3–5.
Shared record
- Test their differences70–100 minutes from the start (30 minutes)
Action: Test. Participation: Groups of 3–5.
Shared record
- Record early signals100–120 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Record. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 15 minutes, each group identifies up to 6 high-impact factors whose future is uncertain and writes their endpoint states on cards.
- For 15 minutes, bring similar cards together and remove dependent pairs where fixing one also fixes the other.
- For 10 minutes, compare impact and independence, choose 2 factors, and place each endpoint state at the ends of the two-axis cross.
- For 30 minutes, every group describes all 4 quadrants with one state each for everyday life, decisions, and resources.
- For 20 minutes, pass the sheet to the group on the right. Place counterexample forms on descriptions also true in adjacent quadrants and write why.
- For 10 minutes, read returned counterexamples and revise descriptions one by one so the differences between the 4 futures can be observed.
- For 20 minutes, give each future a distinctive name and record one early signal per quadrant indicating movement towards it.
If something changes
If
Ten minutes into choosing axes, 4 or more candidates remain.
Then
Keep only pairs where either endpoint of one axis can coexist with both endpoints of the other, then narrow to 2 with the broadest impact.
If
Eighteen minutes into future descriptions, at least 2 quadrants contain 3 or more cards with identical wording.
Then
Remove those cards and rewrite by quadrant whose situation changes and how when an axis endpoint changes.
Preparation
Materials
- 6 uncertainty cards per person, with fields for both endpoints
- One two-axis cross sheet per group, approximately A2 size
- 12 world-description cards per group
- 4 counterexample forms per group
- 4 signal forms per group
- One dark-coloured pen per person
Room and setup
- Groups of 3–5, with at least 3 people in each
- One island table per group for the two-axis cross sheet
- One whole-group surface collecting signals from all 4 futures
Adjust for people and time
Do not run this method with fewer than 6 people, because axis independence and differences between the 4 futures cannot readily be examined together. With 6–10, form 2 groups, each making one sheet. With 11–30, form groups of no more than 5 with sizes differing by no more than 1; every group develops all 4 quadrants. With 30 people, collect only signals from the 6 sheets on the whole-group surface. Do not merge quadrant names or descriptions even when the axes match.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Scenarios are not probabilities or implementation plans. Use evidence for uncertainties, test independent axes, and retain differences between futures and groups rather than merging them into one prediction.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Scenario Matrix
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
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