Method guide · Work with a structured grid
Policy Stress-testing
Test policies against several future conditions to distinguish robust elements, failure conditions, and changes to trigger.
- People
- 4–30
- Base procedure time
- 90 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Make a decision; Reflect and learn.
English guide
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How this method works
A method for testing policies against several future conditions and separating failure conditions from elements to keep. Use it when discussions defend favoured proposals, effectiveness is judged from one assumption, or any failure immediately means abandonment. Fix success conditions first, then judge each policy under each future condition as keep, revise, or stop. From the reasons, separate elements that remain robust from assumptions that fail under particular conditions and turn these into triggers for revision. The result is a policy robustness table, failure conditions, robust elements, revisions, and monitoring indicators. Do not use one discussion to guarantee safety or effectiveness or rewrite future conditions conveniently to get a policy approved.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
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- Set judgement criteria0–10 minutes from the start (10 minutes)
Action: Set. Participation: Everyone.
Recording not separately specified for this phase
- Read future conditions10–25 minutes from the start (15 minutes)
Action: Read. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Test policies25–55 minutes from the start (30 minutes)
Action: Test. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Compare failures55–75 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Compare. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
- Retain revisions75–90 minutes from the start (15 minutes)
Action: Retain. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 10 minutes, identify up to 3 policies to test and define their shared purpose and minimum success conditions in one sentence each.
- For 15 minutes, each group of 3–6 reads the 4 future-condition cards and underlines one fact in each that affects its policy.
- For 30 minutes, test the assigned policy against every future condition and place keep, revise, or stop labels and reasons on the robustness table.
- For 10 minutes, gather all judgements and write one sentence identifying the failed assumption of policies rated stop under at least 2 conditions.
- For 10 minutes, circle elements rated keep under at least 3 conditions across policies and write reasons for retaining them at the table’s right edge.
- For 15 minutes, develop up to 3 revisions from revise judgements and record trigger conditions, monitoring indicators, and responsible people.
If something changes
If
Fifteen minutes into policy testing, 80% or more of all judgements are keep.
Then
Add an assumed future where one success condition is lost and reassess only one column for the policy most dependent on it.
If
Eight minutes into comparison, 3 or more stop reasons express only support for or opposition to a policy.
Then
Return to the underlined future-condition facts and rewrite reasons as conflicts between observed facts and success conditions.
Preparation
Materials
- 3 policy sheets per group, with purpose and assumptions fields
- 4 future-condition cards per group, with facts fields
- One whole-group robustness table crossing policies with future conditions
- 12 judgement labels per group: keep, revise, or stop
- 3 whole-group revision sheets, with trigger-condition fields
- One dark-coloured pen per person
Room and setup
- One island table per group of 3–6
- Give each group one policy and one set of future-condition cards
- One whole-group robustness table with policies as rows and future conditions as columns
Adjust for people and time
Do not run this method with fewer than 4 people, because judgement reasons cannot readily be examined together. With 4–30, form groups of 3–6, no more than 6 each, with sizes differing by no more than 1. Each tests one policy under 4 conditions. If there are more groups than policies, assign high-risk policies to more than one group. With 30 people, retain differences between the 5 groups on the robustness table.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Do not claim safety or effectiveness from a single discussion. Keep success conditions fixed, do not manipulate future conditions to favour approval, and use evidence rather than policy preference as judgement reasons.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Policy Stress-testing
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
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