Method guide · Progress through phases
Backcasting
Work backwards from a desired future to necessary conditions and identify first actions within your influence.
- People
- 4–30
- Base procedure time
- 90 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Make a decision; Build working relationships.
English guide
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How this method works
A method for tracing necessary conditions backwards from a desired future to the present and deciding first actions. Use it when current constraints narrow proposals, there is a jump between the desired outcome and actions, or external conditions remain wishes with no owner. Put the future completion state at the right and the present at the left, then arrange up to 6 conditions one by one towards the present, starting with what must hold immediately before the future state. Mark each condition as within your own influence, requiring collaboration, or depending on external parties, separating prerequisites from efforts to influence them. The result is a backward sequence, necessary conditions, scope of influence, and first actions with owners. Do not use it to treat an untested future vision as a fixed course or fill in external parties' agreement by guessing.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
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- Fix the future state0–10 minutes from the start (10 minutes)
Action: Fix. Participation: Everyone.
Recording not separately specified for this phase
- Find the differences10–30 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Find. Participation: Individually.
Individual record
- Trace conditions backwards30–50 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Trace. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Check the route50–75 minutes from the start (25 minutes)
Action: Check. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Decide first actions75–90 minutes from the start (15 minutes)
Action: Decide. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 10 minutes, write the desired future on the completion-state card at the right and identify 2 pieces of evidence by which a third party could judge it achieved.
- For 20 minutes, each person writes up to 4 differences between the present and future and marks them as action, resources, relationships, or rules.
- For 20 minutes, in groups of 3–6, ask what conditions must hold immediately before the future state and arrange up to 6 condition cards one by one towards the present.
- For 15 minutes, connect adjacent conditions with prerequisite lines and give each condition one marker for our own action, collaboration, or external dependency.
- For 10 minutes, reread from the present towards the future and add missing prerequisites and owners for conditions one at a time.
- For 15 minutes, choose 2 first actions from the conditions nearest the present and record their owners, collaborators, and check deadlines.
If something changes
If
Twelve minutes into considering conditions, fewer than 2 condition cards lie between the present and future.
Then
Choose one piece of future-completion evidence and add a condition card showing whose situation or action changes immediately before that evidence appears.
If
Ten minutes after influence marking begins, more than half of all conditions have external-dependency markers.
Then
Choose one external condition, separate out a preceding condition you can observe or influence, and add one collaboration condition card.
Preparation
Materials
- One future-completion-state card per group, with an evidence field
- Four current/future difference cards per person
- Six condition cards per group
- Eight prerequisite lines per group, with an owner field
- Eighteen influence markers per group: our own action, collaboration, or external dependency
- Two first-action slips per group
- One dark-coloured writing implement per person
Room and setup
- One island table per group of 3–6
- One reverse-route surface per group running backwards from the future completion state at the right to the present at the left
- One whole-group ‘present position’ surface for collecting first-action slips and external conditions
Adjust for people and time
Do not use the method with fewer than 4 people, as it is difficult to compare alternative conditions and owners. Calculate the number of groups by dividing participants by 6 and rounding up, then form groups of 3–6 differing in size by no more than 1 person. Each group brings 2 first actions and 1 external condition to the present-position surface. With 30 people, display 10 actions from five groups and retain differences in condition order even for the same future. With 31 or more, use separate sessions of no more than 30.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Do not treat an untested desired future as settled or presume external parties' agreement. Distinguish what the group can influence from collaboration and external dependencies, and retain alternative sequences.
Historical translation and source notes
These original notes are retained verbatim with their fixed source versions. This historical label does not resolve a source-specific concern or establish current acceptance.
- The main procedure and materials specify up to 6 condition cards, while the external-dependency branch can add a further card. The source does not specify how to handle this at the maximum; no stock or replacement rule is added.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Backcasting
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
This material-specific notice does not itself establish publication clearance. Preserved manuscript references above remain separate from the current page's credits and licence evidence.
Diagram, print, and video language
Original Japanese guide, diagram, and print view. Their labels and print text have not been translated; an English print edition is not provided here.
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The manual English phase controls are a navigation aid, not a live facilitation timer. Interactive diagram motion remains pending.
Editorial provenance
Japanese source status and logs are provenance only. They do not mean this English text or interface was field-tested. Historical fixed-text acceptance and hold records remain specific to their recorded versions; displaying them neither asserts current acceptance nor resolves source-specific restrictions.